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Control, create and convert: A detailed look at Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United promotion masterplanTwitter's @LUFCDATA takes a deep dive into the first month of Leeds United's season
By Chris Taylor (@LUFCDATA) 19:30, 12 SEP 2019
Rarely have international breaks treated Leeds fans better than this one. Still basking in the news of their beloved local hero Kalvin Phillips having signed a new five-year deal, club captain Liam Cooper and Stuart Dallas also put pen to paper and signed new contracts this week.
All three players have been remarkably transformed under head coach Marcelo Bielsa, and the trio of new contracts reinforces the significant direction the club have chosen this season - continuity.
Phillips’ new deal, in particular, represents a fantastic coup for the club, especially having spent the entire summer fending off £20m plus bids from Aston Villa and other potential Premier League suitors.
Securing the future of Leeds’ local hero was the news the Elland Road masses had long since waited for, and could prove to be a necessary kickstart following their disappointing home defeat to Swansea before the international break
Such had been the club’s statistical dominance in the Championship this season, that there had been a tedious sense of inevitability in the Whites finding familiar ground by faltering at home to the Welsh side before the international break.
Leeds may have relinquished their early grip of first spot in the division following substitute Wayne Routledge’s late winner, but the Elland Road faithful have far too many positive signs to disintegrate any early optimism.
Leeds have produced a series of dominant performances against all six of their league opponents, and if xG were a fair indicator of the club’s authority, then they would have five more points and sit top of the division right about now. Something I will go into more detail about a bit later.
In reality, Leeds’ have collected 13 points from their opening six games, dropping the other five at home following late goals against Nottingham Forest and Swansea. The club’s recent home form gives reason for some concern having reaped just one win from the last seven matches at Elland Road, a run stretching back to the tail end of last season and that extraordinary defeat to Wigan.
It is a striking contrast to Leeds’ away form, having recorded four consecutive away wins at the start of a season for the first time since 1973. Redressing the balance of where future points are yielded quickly goes without saying.
So a consistency with results is needed, but an improvement to the style of football Leeds are playing certainly does not. It’s an exhilarating, electric, all-attacking brand of football that is designed to entertain the masses and enthrall the neutrals.
Leeds are arguably playing the best brand of football outside of the Premier League in England, and have adopted a playing style the club’s fans and hipsters alike adore across the world.
So where are Leeds excelling, where are we faltering, and what (if anything) is so different from last season’s close-but-no-cigar campaign?
ControlLeeds’ remarkable dominance at the start of this season can be contributed to the three ‘C’s - control, create and convert. The immense control Bielsa’s side have maintained throughout each of their opening six matches deserves highlighting.
Leeds have shown the same aggression and intensity as we have come to expect to see from them so far under Bielsa, but are giving the ball away less often, and are starving their opponents of possession to an even greater extent.
Leeds’ improvement in the first six matches to that made twelve months ago is worth pouring over. Two of the most significant metrics, points and goals may be down, but we have seen chances created increase by 33.9%, chances conceded down by 46.7%, possession up 7%, touches up 15.1%, ball recoveries up 15.4%, take-ons increase by 62.9%, successful passes are up 27.5%, final third passes up 9.4%, pass accuracy up 5%, shot attempts up 38% and our xG raised by a whopping 89.2%. Now these numbers are seriously quite something.
Increasing Leeds’ possession share from last season’s 60% average is no easy task in the Championship, a division awash with possession-driven managers, but Bielsa’s squad have enforced a 7% increase to 67%, only Fulham (68.3%) have managed a higher percentage share of the ball in the division.
Sceptics will no doubt argue that possession doesn’t win games, but Leeds have shown they intend to have possession with purpose. Scott Parker’s Fulham side may have enjoyed the highest share of the ball, but they are averaging 59 passes per chance created this season. Leeds have been much more creative with the ball, conjuring up a chance every 43 passes.
On the ball, Leeds are averaging 15.3 passes per minute of possession in 2019/20, an increase on 14.2 last season. Fulham may well have made the most passes per minute of possession (17.6), but the Cottagers are simply not as creative as Bielsa’s outfit.
Leeds’ increased possession share has had a dramatic impact on helping to tighten control on games by restricting opponents to having less of the ball and conceding fewer chances. Leeds’ control has evidently minimised the threat posed by opposing sides. So far, the club have conceded the fewest goals in the division (3), kept 3 league clean sheets and faced the fewest shots on-target (11) in the division.
Leeds have also allowed just 21 successful opposition passes to be into the penalty area, the lowest tally in the Championship. When a side is conceding just 3.5 successful passes per game into your penalty area, you know your defensive strategy is working effectively across the board.
Inspired by SofaScore’s superb Attack Momentum feature, I mocked up a Momentum chart (above) for Leeds’ first six league matches this season, in chronological order from left to right. Leeds (in white) have conceded minimal concessions and have controlled large periods of their matches.
Leeds’ opponents (in red) have created just 24 chances between them (average of 4 per game), with Bristol City enjoying the most dominant phase of play in the first match of the campaign. The white peaks on the graph help emphasise just how much dominance Leeds have enjoyed so far, and a deliberate trend that looks very much set to continue.
The Rosario-born head coach recently emphasised how his side were not conceding possession easily, something the numbers also support. Leeds’ first six opponents last season made 80 interceptions collectively, a number that has significantly dropped by 26.3% to 59 in Bielsa’s second season in charge.
At this stage last season, Leeds had conceded 45 opposition chances, a figure that has dropped by 47% to just 24 this campaign. Our expected goals against value (xGA) was 5.5 after six matches 12 months ago, that has also seen a sharp 38% drop to just 3.4. These are huge gains without the ball.
Bielsa reinforced the point that his side are no longer a team that gives possession away cheaply. When it comes to ball losses, Leeds lost 104.5 per 90 minutes last season, a number that has dramatically dropped to 95.8 per 90 this season.
All positive signs that Bielsa has tightened the reins and shortened the possibilities of dropping points. After an intense pre-season, the players also look F***er, sharper and leaner, with the vast majority of them now well versed in the gospel of Bielsista.
Two standout performers who have excelled early on are Kalvin Phillips and Ben White. The Leeds duo are excelling with their distribution, completing more successful passes than any other players aged under 24 in the Championship this season (Phillips 348, White 346).
The Jewel in Bielsa’s CrownKalvin Phillips has the adoration of the entire club fan base, a local lad who has been at the club since the age of 14 and has become £20m+ midfield enforcer. His enormous progression under the stewardship of the Argentine head coach has been the most impressive in the squad.
So much so, that Phillips is now widely regarded as one of the best defensive midfielders in England outside of the Premier League, and a potential future England international.
This season he looks even more polished as part-deep lying defensive midfielder, part-third centre-back. He sets the pace and tone to Leeds’ possession, protecting the back line, patrolling midfield, turning over possession, and constantly recycling the ball with an ever meticulous array of passing. Yet we have barely scratched the surface of his true value and contribution to this side.
Phillips has made 403 total passes this season, more than any Championship midfielder in 2019/20. Fulham duo Alfie Mawson (573) and Tim Ream (540) are the only divisional players who have attempted more. Phillips is not only excellent with the ball, he is a supreme ball-winner who has won 28 tackles, more than any other Championship player this season.
Bielsa often entrusts Leeds’ number 23 to play a very specific role in matches, to man-mark an opposing number 10 and nullify their threat. Just ask Aston Villa playmaker Jack Grealish, who created just 1 opportunity and failed to make a single touch inside Leeds’ penalty area when the two sides met in April.
The 23-year-old has also made 49 ball recoveries, more than any other player at the club in 2019/20. Phillips’ rapid development He averaged just 32.5 passes per game in 2017/18 pre-Bielsa, compared with 67.4 this season. His pass accuracy has increased from 72.4% to 86.4%, long ball passes have gone up from 2.1 to 7.3 per game, and tackles won have risen from 2.6 to 4.7 per game.
He also made 10.4% of Leeds’ total passes last season, the largest share by any player at the club. He also made the most ball recoveries (321) and won the most tackles for Leeds last season.
Leeds have won 113 tackles this season, the 4th-highest figure in the division, a number that is understandably lower at 18.8 per game compared to the 19.6 made last season due to the club’s increased possession share.
The Emergence of Ben WhiteLeeds have enforced an increase on the 9.9 interceptions per game they made last season to 10.8 in the current campaign. The club were ranked 15th for this metric in 2018/19, but are now up to fourth with a total of 65.
Ben White, the club’s loan signing from Brighton, has been largely responsible for that having made a staggering 38% of them. The talented ball-playing centre-back has earned rave reviews following a series of imposing performances, and his stats are equally as impressive.
White has made 25 interceptions in six Championship appearances, the best tally in the division, and 9 more than any other Championship defender (who as it happens is fittingly the player he replaced in Pontus Jansson with 16).
The 21-year-old, who has yet to make a senior start for Brighton, has made a meteoric rise through the divisions following loan spells with Newport County in League Two and Peterborough in League One over the last two seasons.
This year, he has arguably been Leeds’ standout performer in the Championship. The young defender’s stellar form was recognised by being awarded the PFA Fans' Championship Player of the Month for August. The first of many if he maintains this form.
White’s style of play blends a mix of calmness and intelligence, and is one that fits perfectly within Bielsa’s expansive style of play. Reminiscent of a young Jonathan Woodgate, nothing seems to faze him. We have already been treated dummies, take-ons, perfectly weighted long forward passes into the final third, timely interceptions and crucial last-ditch blocks. A perfect defensive partner for club captain Liam Cooper.
The Leeds head coach expects nothing less than his centre-backs being exceptional distributors of the ball, something that comes naturally to White. The Dorset-born defender has completed 87.6% of his passes in the Championship this campaign, only Adam Forshaw (90.8%) has a higher percentage for the club by players having made more than three league starts.
The defender’s technical ability has enabled him to attempt 84 progressive passes this season, no Championship player under the age of 22 has managed more. White continues to excel in several metrics across the division. The talented centre-back has also made a total of 44 ball recoveries this season, only Kalvin Phillips has made more for Leeds (49).
White has also completed 346 successful passes, which is the most by any Championship player under 24, and he is also amongst the top 4 players in the division for most ball progressions (446).
Few envisaged him to be an automatic starter for Marcelo Bielsa’s promotion hopefuls, yet he has slotted in flawlessly into the first eleven and made that spot his own, and has already helped keep four clean sheets. Bielsa even turned to White when trailing 0-2 to Stoke at home in the Carabao Cup, coming on at half-time in place of Jamie Shackleton to shore up the defensive line. He ensured Leeds did not concede again that night.
Bielsa was at a loss to explain how he thought opposing managers would set up their teams to play his Leeds side by playing on the counter and exploiting individual mistakes. Such a negative strategy goes against every fibre of the managerial cult figure’s philosophy. The Argentine is a bold, revolutionary coach with an obsession for attacking football.
Arguably Leeds’ most impressive defensive performance this season came during their 1-0 victory over Brentford. The Bees failed to register a single shot from inside Leeds' penalty area, and completed just one pass into the penalty area. Thomas Frank’s side registered an xG of just 0.24, and failed to complete a successful cross from open play throughout the game.
Bielsa’s plan effectively neutralised a tough opponent for the duration of the entire game. Reducing a well regarded side with an attractive, attacking style of play to such a minimal offensive output is some achievement, and one that requires an enormous amount of planning, preparation and execution to achieve.
The former Chile manager’s match plan against Swansea did not provide the same outcome, but Leeds will not deviate from their style of play. Stuart Dallas said the same following Leeds’ first league defeat of the season: “We’re not going to change our way, we’re going to continue to play, continue to pass and move, we just couldn’t get that final touch.â€
Leeds’ relentless high pressing of opponents certainly won’t change anytime soon. Wyscout’s Challenge Intensity metric can fairly depict how effective a team’s pressing can be, and combines duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of an opponent’s time in possession. Leeds have a Challenge Intensity value of 8.7 this season, only Barnsley (9.1) can better that. That is a slight reduction on the 9.3 made last season, which was the highest in the division, but a small decrease that is in line with the club’s increased possession share.