20 games in, the facts that damm Neil Warnock and his Leeds United record.By
Editorial Collective
– September 16, 2012Posted in: Front Page, Monday Talking Points
Blinded by the facts! Neil Warnock is one of the worst Leeds United managers in the post war era, FACT! Earlier in his Elland Road reign we compared the 5 league games and the 10 league games statistics, win ratio basically. Tuesday is Warnock’s 20th league game in charge of Leeds United so we have done another (in advance with all possible terminations involved). After the stats comes the analysis.
The first 20 games comparison (and its just has bad as the first 10):
No spin in this bit just the facts. Warnock’s first 20 league games record compared to every Leeds United manager since Billy Bremner:
Wilkinson: W10-D8-L2, win % 50.
Graham: W6-D5-L9, win % 30
O’Leary: W11-D4-L6, win % 55
Venables: W7-D3-L10, win % 35
Reid: W6-D3-L10 (19 games only), win % 32
Gray (second stint): W6-D5-L9, win % 30
Blackwell: W6-D7-L7, win % 30
Wise: W6-D3-L11, win % 30
McAllister*: W11-D4-L5, win % 55
Grayson: W12-D4-L4, win % 60
Grayson in his last 20 league games: W9-D4-L7 win % 45
Warnock: W5-D5-L9 (after 19) win % 26, after Hull City could be 6-5-9 which would be a 30%, could be 5-6-9, could be 5-5-10 which would both be 25% .
The lose percentages after 20 games are also interesting:
Wilkinson: 10%
Graham: 45%
O’Leary: 30%
Venables: 50%
Reid: 53%
Gray (second stint): 45%
Blackwell: 35%
Wise: 55%
McAllister*: 25%
Grayson: 20%
Grayson in his last 20 league games: 35%
Warnock (if no loss to Hull City): 45%
Warnock (if loss to Hull City): 50%
Now compare the first 20 games win and % with their final Leeds United win %:
Wilkinson: 20-50% Final-43%.
Graham: 20-30% Final-39%.
O’Leary: 20-55% Final-50%.
Venables: 20-35% Final-38%.
Reid: 19-32% Final-32%.
Gray (second stint only): 20-30% Final-22%.
Blackwell: 20-30% Final-39%.
Wise: 20-30% Final-47%.
McAllister*: 20-55% Final-50%.
Grayson: 20-60% Final 50%.
Warnock (assuming a win against Hull City if he left on Wednesday): 30%
Warnock (assuming a draw against Hull City and he left on Wednesday): 25%
Warnock (assuming a defeat against Hull City and he left on Wednesday): 25%
Now the points per league game ratio first 20:
Wilkinson: 1.9
Graham: 1.15
O’Leary: 1.85
Venables: 1.2
Reid: 1.1
Gray (second stint): 1.15
Blackwell: 1.25
Wise: 1.05
McAllister*: 1.85
Grayson: 2
Grayson in his last 20 league games: 1.55
Warnock (if win against Hull City): 1.15
Warnock (if draw with Hull City): 1.05
Warnock (if loss to Hull City): 1
Some addition stats on Warnock since he arrived. He has used 33 players in those 19 league games (Jamie Ashdown is yet to play a league game), brought 14 players into the club, spending about £2.1m. The average age of his 12 signings this season is 29.666, when you add the two loans from last season it becomes 29.93. The goals for tally is 20 making an average of 1.05 a game. The goals against tally is 28 or 1.47 a game. In Grayson’s last 20 games the goals for tally was 28 so 1.4 a game and the against was 27 making 1.35 a game. On clean sheets if Hull City score on Tuesday then over the last 20 games of Larry and the first 20 games of Colin they both would have had 5 clean sheets.
Analysis starts with this fact, Wise, McAllister, Grayson and Warnock all had their first 20 games under the Bates regime, so all had the same limitations of transfer monies and other influences. So basically you can’t argue Warnock has had worse luck or circumstances than Grayson or McAllister, he simply hasn’t used the limited resources available to him as well. Note that Grayson and McAllister left with 50% win ratio’s whilst Warnock could have a 50% loss ratio by Wednesday.
Warnock’s sides, and this will surprise no-one, score less goals than Grayson’s did before the latter’s departure and however, we suspect this bit will come as a surprise to the IWWT brigade, they also concede more! The clean sheets stat puts to bed the myth we are more solid in defence or more difficult to beat. The win % of Grayson in his final 20 games also kill off any nonsense we have improved a jot since Warnock arrived. In fact in not one criteria can you find any improvement, only decline, in goals scored, in goals conceded, in points per game, not one has improved and some have gone backwards!
Those who would defend Warnock have to ask themselves why is his record after 19-20 league games so similar or worse to those who were managers when we were relegated (and to be clear extrapolate the first 19 games Warnock record over a full season and it is touch and go on relegation). They also have to realise than the only previous manager to significantly improve his stats after 20 games was Wise and that didn’t start until game 34 (and after relegation).
Warnock is the worst manager since before Don Revie (not counting Clough or Stein due to low number of league games) over the first 20 games, he isn’t even better than Gray, Reid or Venables, that is damming in the extreme. If he left this week he would have the second worst final record of that last 11 managers list with only Gray keeping him off the bottom. We understand some of you don’t like the implication of all this and would prefer to wallow in a delusion Warnock is a miracle worker but the true fact is Warnock has been a poor manager and you can’t argue with that fact until the stats change markedly.
*Note, McAllister includes 3 play-off games which were in his first 20 league/play-of games. If those were excluded and only normal league games included he has 1 less loss and 1 more draw (which also slightly improves his points per game ratio).
