Emne: Top of the league - Hvorfor det?

[Sølvreven]

The 'rule' works after 15 games; notionally a third of the season. Last 10 seasons: 
 
Top 2 after 15 have finished top 2, 5 seasons in 10
One of the top 2 has finished top 2, 4 seasons in 10
Only once have top two after 15 not finished in the top 2 (2012/13)
7 times in 10 seasons,  top after 15 = auto (top 2)
7 times in 10 seasons,  second after 15 = auto (top 2)
14 out of 20 auto-promoted teams were in the top 2 after 15 games. 
 
So being 1st or second after 15 is not a guarantee of auto, but it's not a bad marker.   
 
30+ points is the other marker: half the auto-promotion places (top 2) over the past 10 years have been filled by teams with 30 points after 15 games.   
 
30 points from 15 games has been achieved 16 times in the last 10 seasons. Of those:   
10 have been auto-promotion (top 2)
Remaining 6 have all finished top 6 (3 were promoted in the playoffs)
 
So 30 points after 15 will get you to the playoffs, barring catastrophe, and are a good indicator of auto (first or second)
 
Highest points after 15 games were Watford in 2007/8 – 35 points. They were the worst performers in this sample;  they ended up 6th.  They only took another 35 points from their next 31 games; w7 d14 l10; after taking 35 from their first 15. 
34 points Newcastle (16/17) Burnley (13/14)  Wolves (08/09) all auto
33 points Southampton (11/12) QPR (10/11) both auto
32 points Leicester (13/14) auto, Cardiff (10/11) 4th. 
 
so 30 points is a good indicator; 32 is a very strong indicator (barring 'doing a Watford')
 
7 games has some correlation, but it's weaker, as you would expect: 8 of 20 auto-promoted teams over the last 10 seasons were in the top 2 after 7 games. It's (obviously) better to be there than not be there, but it hasn't properly taken shape yet. 
 
Only Reading 11/12 came from ‘nowhere’ (16th after 15 games with 18 points). Only Watford (above) completely tanked from the strongest position of anyone over the last 10 seasons, and even they got to the playoffs, despite basically relegation form for two-thirds of the season. 
 
The major lesson from this is yes, of course, the January transfer window can be useful, and yes, you can claw your way into the playoffs or - extremely rarely - into the top two from a poor start....but realistically, it ain't going to happen. The big marker is how well you start the season. Another 13 points from our next 8 games will, based on recent history, give us at least play-offs; another 15 or 16 from our next 8 makes it highly likely we get top 2. 
 
interesting stuff. I didn't realise quite how important a good start was.
 

To hit the 30 point mark after 15 games that, @Notfamousanymore mentions above, we need 13 points from the next 8.
 
That looks like either:
4 Wins, 1 Draw, 3 Losses
or
3 Wins, 5 Draws, 0 Losses
 
Looks more than doable although there are some tougher fixtures and Derbies coming up:
 
Millwall (A)
Ipswich (H)
Cardiff (A)
Sheffield Wednesday (A)
Reading (H)
Bristol City (A)
Sheffield United (H)
Derby (H)

Tipper fem seire på de neste åtte kampene. Tror Millwall, Cardiff og Wednesday blir vanskelige kamper.

[Asbjørn]

Tipper fem seire på de neste åtte kampene. Tror Millwall, Cardiff og Wednesday blir vanskelige kamper.

Millwall og Cardiff blir vel ganske like kamper, begge er lag som satser på fysikken. Klarer vi den ene så tar vi også den andre. Selv er jeg usikker på om midtbana vår 'takler krigen'...

Sheffield-kampene er derbyer som du sier, Finn, og de kan gå alle veier...

Tre av de fire som ennå ikke er nevnt går hjemme...

4-3-1...

[auren]

Top of the league

auren

[Bjorn]

Top of the league

auren

Holy smokes Auren. Bøyer meg i hatten! 
Eneste jeg kan skilte med er at jeg har vært registrert her siden 5.7.2004.. en dag før Asbjørn og Svend Anders... Det er da noe!

[auren]

Top of the league

auren

Holy smokes Auren. Bøyer meg i hatten! 
Eneste jeg kan skilte med er at jeg har vært registrert her siden 5.7.2004.. en dag før Asbjørn og Svend Anders... Det er da noe!

Det mest imponerende er at jeg bare har kvalitetsinnlegg. Kvalitet foran kvantitet 

auren

[Eriksen55]

Du må kjøre på skal du holde Den! Det blir nok Promotion i mai 

[Promotion 2010]

Twitter

wife - "honey wheres the remote?"
me - "same place as leeds are"
wife - "what?"
me - "on top of the table"

#lufc #MOT