...litt mer waccoe'ing:
People keep banging on about us having the toughest run in but hell I'd take ours over Blades anyday of the week.
Wednesday(A), Rotherham(H), Brentford(H), Leeds(A), Bristol(H), Preston(A), Birmingham(A), Millwall (H), Forest (H), Hull (A), Ipswich(A), Stoke(A).
I'd say they were only dead certs for 3 of them fixtures.
Comparing with our;
West Brom(W!!), Bristol(A), Reading(A), Blades(H), Millwall(H), Birmingham(A), Preston(A), Wednesday(H), Wigan(H), Brentford(A), Villa(H), Ipswich(A).
If we take the easiest 4 games from each (as we already beat brom, ill take Stoke away for them). This leaves a fixture list comparison of;
Leeds Blades
Wednesday(H) Wednesday(A)
Brentford(A) Brentford(H)
Bristol(A) Bristol(H)
Blades(H) Leeds(A)
Villa(H) Forest (H)
Reading(A) Hull (A)
Preston(A) Preston(A)
Birmingham(A) Birmingham(A)
Most likely 3 points
Wigan(H) Rotherham(H) - Yorkshire Derby
West Brom(H) Stoke(A) - already won
Millwall(H) Millwall(H)
Ipswich(A) Ipswich(A)
I'd also argue the guaranteed 3 points (I know nothings guaranteed) we have a distinctive edge.
The position played charts don't take into account many things, but lining the fixtures up evenly like this really points to us having a decidedly favourable run in.
TLDR ...
Out of the last 12 games (my personal opinion) Blades have 6 matches on paper that are tougher than our equivilent, we have 2 matches tougher out of 12, with 4 matches of the 12 being even.
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I havent re-cut this into excel, but just taking the results yesterday (Leeds W v WBA) and today (Norwich W v Millwall) puts us up to 1.75 ppg vs top quartile, and Norwich up to 2.78 ppg vs bottom quartile.
Extrapolating the remaining games, that gives
Leeds 22.6 (22 or 23) from the remaining 11 games, 89 or 90 points
Norwich 24.4 (24 or 25) from their remaining 11; 93 or 94 points
Sheff United 22 from their remaining 12; 86 points
Needless to say, Sheffield Weds could do us a bit of a favour on Monday; that would drop a couple of points of Sheff United's extrapolated total. Every game is pretty vital, but Leeds v Sheff United is, as they say, a 6 pointer.
As things stand, WGUAFRU which suits me fine. If we have a cushion of more than 6 points going into the last two games, so much the better for my nerves.
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This is what concerns me about the run-in. Us and Sheff Utd have almost identical fixtures to the end of the season with a very similar set of teams. Norwich's is even easier. Thing is, they are both much more consistent against the bottom half than we are, whereas we've been a bit better against the top teams. Doesn't exactly bode well looking at those remaining games. That game against Sheff Utd could well prove promotion-deciding.
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Wednesday have only lost one game in their last 12, feeling hopeful about tomorrow!
If Norwich didn't have such a bad start to the campaign they would be promoted already.