This is every team that has been automatically promoted this century. Highlighted green are the teams that had fewer than 40 points after 23 games. The gap to the team in 2nd place is in the 7th column and the total points amassed + points per game amassed in the second half of the season are on the far right.
To summarise:
38 teams have been automatically promoted since 2000.
5 of these teams had fewer than 40 points at the halfway stage (13%).
Sunderland had the fewest points after 23 games (34 points in 2006/07). They amassed an incredible 54 points in the second half of the season (2.3ppg).
Sunderland's 2006/07 season is also the only occasion that a team outside the top 6 managed to go up automatically.
The biggest gap to second place at the halfway stage that was overturned was 9 points. This feat was achieved by Burnley (2016) and Sunderland (2007).
The highest number of points amassed in the second half of the season was 57 by Man City in 2001/02 (2.5ppg). Remarkable.
The fewest number of points amassed in the second half of the season was 35 by Hull in 2012/13, who went up with a record low 79 points.
The top 2 at the halfway stage have both gone up automatically 8 times in 19 seasons (42% of occasions). They both finished in the same position 6 of these times (32% of occasions).
There has never been a season where both automatically promoted teams have come from teams outside the top 2 at this stage of the season.
Average ppg for a promoted team is 1.96 (so basically 2ppg) - or 45 points.
So Boro, Derby, and Sheff Utd aren't completely out of the automatic promotion hunt, but it's statistically very unlikely. As above, only 13% of teams with less than 40 points have managed to get promoted since 2000, and only 3 of those teams overturned a deficit of 8 points or greater (8%). Only one team has ever done it with 35 points or less (2.6%), and no team has done with fewer than 34 points - meaning Villa would have to do something pretty damn historic to pull off promotion from here.
